当前位置:希尼尔首页 > 双语新闻 > 亚洲降息潮还将持续多久

                                                                              From:青岛希尼尔翻译公司 http://www.sinosenior.com.cn  Date: 2015-03-18



Asian central bank watchers are having a tough time deciding where to look.

Yesterday, South Korea became the latest to surprise the market with a rate cut, following in the footsteps of Thailand, China and India — all of which have loosened policy unexpectedly in the past two weeks alone. Indonesia’s February move to lower borrowing costs is also still fresh in the mind.
There are some common threads that help explain Asia’s easing path — such as falling inflation, stuttering growth and fluctuations in global currency markets. But country-specific issues are also playing their part.
“There are some concerns about growth and exchange rate competitiveness”, said Krystal Tan at Capital Economics. “Now that inflation is low, it’s given policy makers an opportunity to act.”
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的Krystal Tan表示:“存在着一些对增长和汇率竞争力的担忧。既然通胀现在这么低,政策制定者就有了行动的机会。”
For South Korea, the tumbling yen has prompted questions about export costs, while domestic growth has been disappointing. This week’s cut takes benchmark rates down to 1.75 per cent, a record low for Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
Thailand, too, is worried about growth, with exports and private consumption both weaker than expected at the start of the year. That the baht has held up better than some other Asian currencies against the rising dollar may also have played into the central bank’s thinking.
For India, falling inflation has presented an opportunity to give the economy a helping hand, as the Modi-led government looks to get the country back on track as quickly as possible.
In contrast, Chinese policy makers have been growing nervous about the prospect of outright deflation, with a contraction in producer prices now entering its third year. Growth is stalling, the housing market is still in a funk and the renminbi, on a trade-weighted basis at least, is at a record high. Looser policy may also be designed to balance tighter liquidity caused by accelerating capital outflows.
Economists expect more cuts from some countries — most likely India and China — while others are tipped to stay put.
The Philippines, where growth has remained strong, will have one eye on its high rate of credit growth, while recent currency weakness in oil-exporting Malaysia makes lower rates a less attractive option, even as the economy slows.
With rates now at record lows and household debt levels already high in both South Korea and Thailand, further moves are not expected there either.
“Unless recession risk escalates, we don’t see a clear path for another rate cut,” said Citibank economists following the Bank of Thailand’s move this week.
在泰国央行(Bank of Thailand)本周降息之后,花旗银行(Citibank)经济学家曾表示:“除非衰退风险加剧,否则我们看不到(泰国)进一步降息的明确信号。”
Policy makers across the region will also be mindful of what happened in the spring of 2013, when Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, first used the word “tapering”. This signal that quantitative easing had peaked prompted rapid capital flight from emerging markets, with India and Indonesia both forced into emergency rates rises to steady their currencies.
亚洲政策制定者还将铭记2013年春季发生的事。当时,时任美联储(Fed)主席的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)首次使用了“逐步缩减QE规模”(tapering)一词。这一量化宽松见顶的信号曾导致资本迅速逃离新兴市场,印度和印尼两国都曾被迫因此紧急提升利率,以稳定本国货币的汇率。

希尼尔翻译公司  2015-03-04